Sentencing and the Limits of Actuarial Risk Assessment

Marquette Law professor Michael M. O'Hear posts on a Seventh Circuit opinion's ethical questions about statistical assessment of the risk of recidivism in the context of an appeal from the sentence of a child molester.

"[T]o tie sex offenders’ sentences to the statistics Reibel presents in his brief would be repugnant: offenders would be able to secure a shorter sentence by molesting girls rather than boys; offenders who were once victims would receive longer sentences than those who were not; and abusers of young children would receive shorter sentences than those whose victims were older." (pp. 7-8)

If the court is citing studies indicated "ephebophiles" are more likely to reoffend than "pedophiles", I don't recall that our Archdiocese mentioned that back when they were pushing the distinction, see my May 17, 2002 post

P.S. Pedophiles, Hebephiles and Ephebophiles, Oh My: Erotic Age Orientation, by Jesse Bering.